I mentioned last week that I’d be sharing some of my thoughts on whether or not Tim Donaghy fixed games. As a primer I highly recommend you read the following two articles posted by Henry Abbott of True Hoop.

Tim Donaghy’s Claims on Trial

Tim Donaghy Addresses the Research

The cliffs on the above two articles go like this;

Tim Donaghy goes through great lengths to explain how he was able to be so successful betting on NBA basketball games he officiated while not influencing the outcomes. The Donaghy camp provides details to some of his techniques “Bet on underdogs when Dick Bavetta is officiating” “Bet against Allen Iverson teams when Steve Javie is officiating” are two examples. 

All of the angles that Donaghy provides are debunked and Donaghy responds

“”These are some of the criteria that I used,” Donaghy says. “I’m not saying I bet every game. … You can spin the stats any way you want … The FBI investigated thoroughly. … To sit here and say there was a science to how I did this, with the stats you’re throwing at me. … Based on the information you’re using, with your equation, it’s not even in the same ballpark. There were other factors that came into play. Inside information about injuries. Home game or away game. Home crowd. Many more factors to take into consideration.” 

Of course this is all bullshit, as far as I can tell the only criteria Donaghy considered when he was betting on NBA games was whether or not he was actually slated to officiate the game -