This year I am taking part in the True Hoop Stat Geek Smackdown. In addition to providing the series winner as well as a projected number of games, we were asked to provide some brief analysis.

Here then are my selections;

Eastern Conference

The only real chance Chicago has of sneaking a game or two in this series is if Cleveland struggles some trying to get Shaq back into the rotation. If I was Cleveland I’d keep O’Neal in mothballs and trot him out there in the ECFinals to start each half against Howard and the Magic. Which by the way should be the actual NBA Finals as Cleveland and Orlando are far and away the two best teams in the league.

Orlando in 5

Orlando has the sharpest best coach in the league, the best defensive player in the league and seems to understand better than most that a 3 point shot is worth more than a 2 point shot. The lone advantage Charlotte might have in this series is Gerald Wallace vs Rashard Lewis, unfortunately for Wallace after getting by Lewis on the perimeter he’ll most likely be faced with Howard in the paint.

Atlanta in 5

I’d have made this series near a pickem on a neutral floor if Bogut was healthy, unfortunately he isn’t and Atlanta has HCA.  Milwaukee should look to go small in this series playing Ilyasova at the 5 when Kurt Thomas comes off the floor, if they do that and shoot the 3 ball well they have a chance of making this a fun 1st round series. 


Boston in 6

Just how good is Dwyane Wade? Take a look at his supporting cast and get back to me, Miami basically played playoff basketball all season really minimizing the number of possessions in a game and protecting the ball.  As bad as Boston has looked this year unless Udonis Haslem can shoot around 70% on wide open mid range 2s after Wade is doubled on the high screen roll, it’ll be awfully tough for Miami to win.

LA in 7

This will be a tough series for the Lakers who are probably the worst #1 seed the West has seen in a number of years. They are probably at best the 3rd or 4th best team in their conference, luckily for them they are playing an extremely young OKC team that may have some trouble adjusting to the Playoffs their first go of it. OKC has a decided advantage at the PG position and although Durant is by far their most valuable player, in this series the play of Westbrook and Harden will likely decide the series for OKC. If Westbrook can abuse Fisher / Farmar and Brown (as he should) then this could and should be a long tough series for the Lakers. 

Dallas in 7

Good news for Dallas they drew the 2 seed and have HCA vs any team not named the Lakers, the bad news? They face one of the top 3 teams in the conference in the first round. I think most would agree that the Spurs are one of the hotter teams in the west at this point. This series should be a good example of why the NBA is a matchup league and not a power ranking league. Dallas strengths matchup pretty closely with the Spurs weaknesses.


Phoenix in 5

Without a healthy Brandon Roy it’ll be extremely tough for the Blazers to win more than 2 games in this series. The acquisition of Camby has really helped Portland but they are facing a very good team that is playing exceptionally well. The main weakness on this Phx squad is having Collins and Frye at the C position. Portland doesn’t really have anyone to exploit that too much also look for Admundson to play a decent role in the playoffs for the Suns as he has played very well of late.


Denver in 7

This is a tough series for me to pick mainly because I am somewhat in denial regarding just how much a bench coach is worth. Karl coached the Nuggets all year, they are playing a system he installed. Their current coach has been a longtime assistant under this head coach and has been with the team all year. How important could in game adjustments and lineup shuffling be? When you go from George Karl to Adrian Dantley, apparently very important.  Denver can and should win this series, whether they will is another story