The stat I like to use most to determine how effective a players offensive production has been (individually) is points per possession or ppp.

ppp basically tells us how many points per possession your team scored when you were the offensive player who ended the possession. Baskets are positive, misses, and turnovers are negative. 

The one thing you’ll notice with ppp numbers is that by and large they are dominated by guys that shoot (and make) a lot of 3 pointers. In general catch and shoot 3 point shooters are usually near the top of the list. PPP is highly contextual, its really useful to compare players who perform similar tasks, but not that useful in comparing players with disparate skill types.

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I got an email a little while back from Mori of PokerProductions asking if I’d like to take part in the upcoming season of High Stakes Poker. For those unfamiliar with High Stakes Poker here is the wiki link. I used to play quite a bit of poker from 2005-2007 some would even say I actually played it quite well.

In the last few years I have been preoccupied with other things, so I haven’t much interest in playing poker. Truthfully the high stakes live poker scene kind of peaked in 2007, in 2007 you’d have all kinds of drop ins playing high stakes, guys like Pete the Plumber would show up one weekend gamble pretty high - win some / lose some. Then vanish.

In the summer of 2007 there was a regular 100-200 NL game, along with a few 200-400 blind NL games, these games were regularly filled with people who were willing to (and quite often destined to) lose large sums of money as if it was their job.

By the summer of 2008 the poker scene had cooled off considerably. There was still the odd music producer, former street performer turned cosmonaut as well a few other characters who showed up, played and shoved their money into the center of the table. But for the most part those games ran infrequently, and when they did it was very difficult to get a seat.

So when I heard that High Stakes Poker was filming its 8th season, and by the way Full Tilt Pros like Durrr, Phil Ivey, and Patrik Antonius (arguably the 3 best and toughest poker players to play against in the world) were not allowed to play.  Despite me being extremely rusty at poker, and not really having played stakes like that in some time, I snap accepted.

I flew into Vegas from Burbank the morning the day of the shoot. Usually the way things work is you play poker for around 5 hours, take a dinner break, and then finish up at around 10pm that night. They then take that days worth of taping and turn into X shows depending on how interesting / compelling the play was for that day.

I don’t think that our day of taping was too interesting, for the most part nobody really went off, but the opportunity to make money seemed pretty good.

My table looked like this;

Me

Phil Laak

Mike Baxter (businessman who I have played quite a bit with)

Jonathan Duhamel (WSOP ME winner)

Jason Mercier 

Rando businessman

Rando businessman

Barry Greenstein.

My initial thoughts were that I wanted to play as many pots as possible with the Rando businessmen, and try to play as simple a game as possible. 

The blinds were 400-800 with a 100 ante, meaning it would cost you $2000 to play one round. Most of the people at the table bought in for the minimum $200,000 and I did the same, I was prepared to buy in for another $400,000 if the situation warranted and I went busto.

The last time I had played any remotely moderately staked poker was in 2008, the game then was 500-1000 blind NL (then switched to PLO) and it was easily the wildest / biggest game I had ever played in. I lost a 550,000 pot in the first hour, decided to take a walk around the casino and decide whether I wanted to continue. 

I decided the game was too good to pass up, and continued playing for around 15 more hours. Won the biggest pot of my life, questioned my sanity for playing in a game where most hands were straddled and restraddled sometimes re-re straddled.

For those who are unaware of what this means it means that people would involuntary post 3rd and 4th (sometimes 5th) blinds of $2000, $4000 and $8000 by the time it got to you, it would be 4-8000 to call, sometimes $25,000 to call. Every orbit someone would stick 300-400k in the middle of the table, get called and then say - I don’t have much what do you have? Want to run it twice?

So ya - that was the last time I played live poker and here I was on set getting ready to play a fairly big buyin NL cash game.

The people at High Stakes Poker don’t want you posting any results prior to airing but I’ll will say that I make arguably the worst fold in the history of televised poker (it seemed right when I folded), marginal 1-2 mins later and epically bad 30 mins later.

I had never played a cash game with Barry G before and to be honest hadn’t seen much of his cash game play (I rarely watch the tv shows that I am not on because I am vain like that). So when I made the fold it felt okay, after seeing Barry play for the rest of the day,  I was sure I made a bad fold. I am not sure if this hand appears in episode 1 or 2 but it will surely make the show.

For those interested the show airs on GSN at 5pm PST tonight.

After an extremely long blogging hiatus, I have decided to see if I can’t return to blogging some.

I found it interesting that the Lakers one of the few Western Conference team (i think) to not send a representative to SSAC . 

And then I read an article that Kevin Ding has written detailing how the Lakers have tweaked their defense to adjust to the modern game.

“The concession is the Lakers will let opponents take mid-range jumpers from 15 to 19 feet. The Lakers can stay out on 3-point shooters better and keep point guards from getting all the way to the basket. When Tony Parker got hot early for San Antonio on Sunday, the Lakers moved up their plug just enough to deter him”

The lakers have basically decided to guard the 3point line, and the paint and leave the midrange game somewhat open, the fascinating thing about this isn’t that the Lakers have finally caught up to the advanced defensive strategy that teams like the Spurs, and Magic under Van Gundy have been employing for some time, its that they have been winning championships in spite of this.

The “genius” in this is that you are basically allowing the worst ev shot in basketball the midrange jumper, and taking away all the higher ev shots. Trivial yes, but the fact that the Lakers have finally discovered this is troubling to the rest of the league.

I remember listening to a Phil Jackson presser from the 2008 season where he described his disdain for the corner 3 point shot  - he argued that once the defensive rebound was secured. it led to a higher than normal amount of transition opportunities.

I have always been a big proponent of the corner three point shot - after watching the Lakers repeatedly leave Ray Allen, Eddie House, and James Posey wide open from the corner (the Posey 3 point shots were especially comical as you’d have Lamar Odom streaking down the center of the court awaiting a fast break outlet pass that never materialized), it was clear to me that the Lakers were actually coaching their team to abandon the corner 3 point area in hopes of exploiting transition opportunities. 

I decided to watch and chart every  3 point shot and the ensuing rebound from the 2007 and 2008 season and found that the corner 3 point shot did not lead to higher than normal fast break opportunities.  

The Lakers are going to be a much tougher out in the playoffs if they are able to consistently protect the paint and close out on 3 point shooters.

Which brings me to this shot chart;

This is a shot chart from the 1st quarter of the Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs game from last week. Note how the Heat (offense on the left)  were relegated to a mid range jump shooting team, they have no chance of beating the better (defensive) teams in the regular season or the playoffs unless they figure out a way to get something other than a series of 16-20 foot jumpers in the half court.

I am currently looking to bring on at least one research assistant here are the details of the job;

1. The pay is crap / non-existent to start, but if you prove to me your worth we will work something out. 

2. You can work from home

3. You will be collecting tidbits of newspaper articles and information and emailing them to me, a good example would be finding links to video of coaches post game conferences and emailing me. You’d also be expected to send me links to newspaper articles that I might find relevant. You’ll put a snippet of text in the email and then provide me with the link to the whole article. 

Here is an example;

Shaq and Jermaine Both “Unlikely” To Play vs. Heat?

Chris Forsberg of ESPNBoston has the full coverage in his Practice Report but for now, here’s what we know as the team headed in practice today:

• Jermaine O’Neal did not practice due to his sore left knee
• Shaquille O’Neal was going to try to practice today
• Both players are “unlikely” to play Saturday

http://celticshub.com/2010/11/10/shaq-and-jermaine-both-unlikely-to-play-vs-heat/

If anyone is interested please contact me bob (@) nbaplaycharting.com

The NBA has announced that they would like to renew a sense of “Respect for the Game and will likely increase the number or technical fouls called as a result of complaining. The goal of which is to reduce the amount of complaining and (I am assuming) gesticulating from players and coaches alike.

You can read all about it here;

and

Cut the Complaining 

etc etc. 

The interesting thing in all of this we have already been over this consider;

““The goal here is to significantly reduce the amount of player complaining that takes place in our games. The reason we’re doing is because excessive complaining by the players interferes with game play, it’s distracting to the fans, and it conveys a negative impression of our players as well. So, the goal here is, as I mentioned, to reduce that and help our overall game.”

If you think that is from a recent article, guess again. Its from a Q&A from November of 2006 with Stu Jackson.

In the 2005-2006 (2006)regular season 873 techs were called. *note these are techs that are not the result of illegal defense infractions etc, just plain old techs.

After the league made its internal change prior to the start of the 2007 season we saw an increase in the amount of techs called.

There were 992 techs called in the 2007 season, but only 810 techs called in the 2008 season. 

If you are wondering why the NBA did away with its vigor in reducing complaining from the players in between the 2007 and 2008 season you might want to read some of the older posts on this blog (Tim Donaghy).

This would like never have been allowed in 2007 (nor in 2011 it seems)

I guess this new announcement to reduce complaining to the officials is as good a sign as any that the Tim Donaghy scandal has now been put to rest by the NBA. 

Somewhere Rasheed Wallace is glad he decided to retire;

Miami has apparently filled out one if its vacant spots with the signing of Mike Miller and as much as I hate to say it, its over for the rest of the league. I had the Heat winning ~64 games with the “trinity” and 9 scrubs. The addition of Mike Miller is a perfect complement to that roster. 

One thing that hasn’t been mentioned is that Miami does not need a starting PG, in fact there is this assumption in the NBA that every team requires a PG but why is that the case? You have two extremely high usage players in LeBron and D. Wade, why on earth would you want to play a small PG who will become a defensive liability. 

Unless you have a top 5 PG, players like Kobe, LeBron, and D.Wade can and should be the defacto point guards for their team.

I have held this belief for a number of years and cringed in 2009 when the Lakers rolled out a lineup of;

D Fisher

Kobe

Ariza

Gasol 

Bynum

Instead of;

Kobe 

Ariza

Odom

Bynum

Gasol.

This past year M. Williams and D. West were injured for CLE forcing LeBron to play extended mins at the point, this was an extremely efficient lineup. When the cavs played Boston in the playoffs, why exactly was Mo Williams on the floor, he couldn’t guard Rondo to begin with. Williams’ role was basically reduced to that of being a spot of shooter with LeBron handling the ball.

How is having Mo Williams on the floor any better than having someone like Mike Miller on the floor?

It isn’t.

Teams with players like LeBron and D. Wade (or Kobe for that matter) don’t need PG’s unless they are defensive wizards who are required to guard the ultra quick guards like Aaron Brooks or Chris Paul.

Miami is only lacking a body at the center position, any serviceable big will do, heck they could sign one of the Collins twins and Kurt Thomas and that would be that. Who is going to beat this team?

Boston is a team that has all the parts to beat Miami, unfortunately the parts areold and decaying rapidly. In order to compete with Miami you are going to need two very good defensive players, one for LBJ and one for Wade.

They don’t come any better than Allen and Pierce, but can we really expect these guys to make one more run. And if Allen got tired guarding Kobe, can you imagine how fatigued he’d get trying to stay in front of D. Wade?

If Boston wants to have a shot they should strongly consider re-signing Tony Allen, and while they are at it they might want to stick him in a gym and teach him how to shoot the ball.

Orlando has been mentioned as a team that will give Miami fits because of D. Howard, but as much as I like Orlando and Stan Van Gundy they don’t have anyone on their roster who can handle either LeBron or Wade let alone both of them.

Howard would be tough for Miami to handle but it won’t matter because I really believe this current Miami team will be one of if not the best offensive teams in league history. The current Orlando squad would match up horribly against this Miami team.

OKC provides a glimmer of hope - if they can add one more great player then they have a shot in a few years time. They have Westbrook who has the ability to be a decent defender, as does Harden. And they have a relative defensive ace in Thabo Sefalosha, but nobody with enough size to handle LeBron. The players in the league who are best suited to handle LeBron,  Artest, Pierce, and Battier are all on the wrong side of 30.

Get back to me when Lebron is 31 because for the next 5 years it’s over.

I have read varying reports in terms of how many games the Miami heat expect to win next year with Bosh, James and Wade and have decided to post the results of our season simulator.

Because the rest of the roster is unknown we filled out the roster with what we term scrubbish players. WIthout going into detail on how we arrive at a number for these players lets just call them below avg or somewhat below avg players.

Once Miami fills out the rest of their roster with actual players we’ll get a much clearer picture, but for now  here is our prediction of how the big and 9 scrubbies will fair next year.

* note this assumes they all play 82 games which of course isn’t likely.

wins      PS     PA   diff
 --------------------------
 64.4   110.2   97.3   12.9

 team     eff   efg%   tov%   orb%   ftr%
 ----------------------------------------
  MIA    1.18  51.66  14.53  35.04  28.26
  OPP    1.04  45.00  17.01  34.21  26.75

 player   g  gs   min
 -----------------------
 BoshChr01  82  82  33.0
 JamesLe01  82  82  33.0
 scrubish1  82  82  48.1
 scrubish1  82  82  48.1
 scrubish1  82   0   3.7
 scrubish1  82   0  13.8
 scrubish1  82   0  15.1
 scrubish1  82   0  11.4
 scrubish1  82   0   0.0
 WadeDwy01  82  82  34.3

Kobe Bryants Playoff offensive points per possession (ppp) by opponent / season dating back to 2003. 

LeBron James Playoff ppp by season / opponent. Amazing how well the Spurs did against him in the 4 game sweep of 2007. 

Much was made of Kobe Bryants breakout performance in the 3q of yesterdays game. Doc Rivers called him the games best shot maker and I would have to agree with that assessment. It is also quite clear however that in the last 3 playoff seasons no team has defended Kobe Bryant better than the Celtics.

An offensive metric that I really like to use is points per possession - this is much better than any offensive efficiency metric because it takes into account all of the possession altering offensive actions a player might make;

(Shots, turnovers and fouls drawn)

In the Lakers last 3 deep playoff runs 2008,2009 and this year through 5 games, Kobe Bryant has averaged 

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After game 5 there has been quite the change in some of the numbers I posted the other day. Here then are the updated numbers through 5 games.

With Bynum in;

Boston is scoring;

Total Unique Possessions: 227 Total PPP: 1.066

Bynum out;

Total Unique Possessions: 219 Total PPP: 1.013

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The Celts like to use Pierce in ISO sets, but this is not the matchup to be doing this - they should focus more on bringing him off of screens and cuts to the basket. They can also use him as the ball handler in Pick and Roll sets. Artest struggles mightily moving laterally but is a great postup and ISO defender - 

Here are some examples that illustrate how poorly he moves off of cuts and screens;

Much has been made of the status of Andrew Bynum, lets start of by taking a look at some per possession number involving Bynum.

Starting with the most basic, 

With Bynum In;

Total Plays: 260 

Total Unique Possessions: 170 Total PPP: 1.011

This means the Celtics are scoring at a rate of 1.01 per possession with Bynum on the court.

Bynum out;

Total Plays: 310 

Total Unique Possessions: 187 Total PPP: 1.069 

To put things in perspective through the first four games the average number of possessions per game has been 93.5 possessions. If Bynum was a machine and could play the entire game Boston would rate to score around 5.4 fewer points.

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So this blog is quickly becoming all Tim Donaghy all the time and I assure you this was never my intention. Unfortunately the Tim Donaghy publicity tour continues, and I really want to set the record straight on some of his claims.

Consider the following excerpt from Donaghy’s work of fiction “Personal Foul”.;

Minnesota at Charlotte

This was a New Year’s Day game and I was in Charlotte for a matchup between the Bobcats and the TImberwolves. 

Before the game, I spoke with my group supervisor Jim Wishner. Jim mentioned that Minnesota’s star forward Kevin Garnett had been getting away with a lot of traveling violations and that no one was paying attention to his footwork. Jim expected us to keep an eye on Garnett and to start enforcing the rule.

he goes on to write;

In addition to the anticipated crackdown on Garnett, I liked the way Charlotte coach Bernie Bickerstaff had his squad playing high-energy basketball most nights. I called Tommy and told him to bet Charlotte.

The Bobcats played well early but fell part during the second half, getting outscored 34-18 in the fourth quarter. Garnett played exceptionally well for Minnesota, while Charlotte’s players were arguing amongst themselves all night. Much of the angst was directed at the Bobcat’s Adam Morrison, who took several off-balanced, ill-advised shots down the stretch in what had been a fairly tight contest.

Minnesota kept its composure and pulled out the road win 102-96. It was a loss for me, Tommy, and Ba Ba, and once again there were no apples coming my way. 

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